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International opinion

By John Loty (June 2004 Issue)
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The biggest structural change in Australia’s workforce since the Second World War is coming no matter what, and this presents many challenges and opportunities for the training, education, development and learning communities. Simply put, this far-reaching change, now a trickle but soon to be a deluge, is looming because the so-called post-war ‘baby boomers’ have passed 55 and are beginning to retire. This and other future skills challenges are considered in the recently published National Industry Skills Report.1

This report, an initiative of the Australian National Training Authority Board (www.anta.gov.au) was released on 14 April 2004 at the second National Industry Skills Forum where leaders from business and employment met with vocational education and training (VET) decision makers to discuss the workforce skills base required in the future Australia.

Refreshingly, from my point of view, ‘short-termism’ was identified as a serious deficiency or malaise in our thinking (or more accurately perhaps, lack of thinking) process, and various scenarios looking 20 or so years into the future are presented for further consideration.

We have been told for some time now that the world is changing rapidly, as it certainly is, but here in this report the words ‘learning’, ‘training’ and ‘education’ are used almost interchangeably, which itself is, from my point of view, a remarkable and welcome change.

I suppose it is not so remarkable when you consider that concepts such as globalisation, networks, relationships, knowledge, integration, flexibility, creativity and aptitude are featuring strongly in the emerging research about the changing nature of work and are being considered as critical success factors.

THE COMING RETIREMENT CRUNCH
It is not just the ‘workers’ who are about to retire but also the managers, teachers, trainers and current ‘decision makers’. Many of the occupations with the highest expected rates of retirement in the coming years are from the higher skills end of the occupation category. Indeed, given present patterns there will in Australia in 2025 be a net reduction in the size of our workforce.

Over the next ten years or so it is estimated that there will be (given projections of employment growth, staff turnover and retirements) 1.25 million people per year new to their occupations. (This is approximately 1 in 8 of the workforce.) Many of these people will require training as Australia’s industry structure changes towards a more highly skilled future.

Questions, posed rhetorically, such as ‘What if there is instability in the Asia Pacific?’ and ‘What are the implications of the changeover from the baby boomers to the next generation between now and 2025?’ are considered by way of ‘scenario planning’ – said to be a ‘useful exercise to help understand and analyse emerging complexities, particularly relevant in looking at possible future industry skills needs’.2

The scenarios, extracts from work done by The Business Council of Australia (BCA), explore the relationships that shape Australia’s capacity to build security, prosperity and social harmony.

IMPLICATIONS FOR EDUCATION AND TRAINING
The National Industry Skills Report notes that while the BCA report does not single out education and training as a focus, it nevertheless features strongly in the scenarios. ‘Each scenario poses many challenges for the Australian vocational education and training system – not only in terms of the nature of skills but in how the education industry itself operates and the structures within which it does business.’3

Projected job prospects and risks on an industry-by-industry basis are also presented in this report. The same big four industries that accounted for most of the job growth in the decade to 2003 are projected to do likewise for the next decade. Those industries are: construction and property services; business and innovation; community and health services; and tourism, retail and recreational services.

SOME OTHER GOOD NEWS
An ageing Australia also presents opportunities – new markets in need of new skills. Mature consumers, we are told, are in fact Australia’s largest retail growth market. Their spending habits will shape consumer spending for years to come. This means that businesses wanting to get a slice of the action (increased revenue potential) will need to re-skill to ensure they have the right product mix, the right marketing strategy and the right customer service plans. The forecasts of total projected consumer spending make fascinating reading. Yes, according to these forecasts, the future of Australia’s bank balance looks assured for the next ten years at least.

LIFELONG LEARNING
An earlier (2000) report entitled ‘Lifelong Learning is the key’ from the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER), Australia’s principal provider of vocational education and training (VET) research and statistics, makes it plain that lifelong learning as an imperative for Australia is not a recent discovery.4

Speaking of reports I will close by giving you details about the report on the 2003 Survey of Training in Australia (which can be accessed at www.appcon.com.au/survey). After you download it you will be required to obtain a password by completing a form and e-mailing it. The password will automatically be e-mailed back to you. This training survey deals, inter-alia, with the ‘what’ (content), ‘who’ (is being trained), ‘how’ (methodology), and how much is being spent by various categories within Australia.

References
1. The National Industry Skills Report can be downloaded from www.anta.gov.au/publication.asp?qsID=615
2. The National Industry Skills Report, op. cit. 4. To find out more visit www.ncver.edu.au/research/proj2/mk0001e.htm

 

John is president of the International Society for Performance Improvement (ISPI), Sydney Chapter (www.ispisydney.org.au). He is also a member of the NSW Council of the Australian Institute of Training and Development (AITD) (www.aitd.com.au/) and director of a registered training organisation (RTO) called Logistics Training International Asia Pacific Pty Ltd.(www.scilnet.com.au).
John can be contacted at Learning@scilnet.com.au

 

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