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Recession nearly over says skills commission

By Martin Kornacki (12-06-2009)
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Learning and Development News - Recession nearly over says skills commission

The recession is almost over according to the UK Commission for Employment and Skills (UKCES).
 
UKCES chief executive, Chris Humphries, made the comments during a speech to L&D practitioners at the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development’s (CIPD) Resilience through Recession conference in London yesterday (11/06/09).
 
And the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has said the economy as a whole grew in April and May. Three months of consecutive economic growth would officially define the UK as out of recession.
 
Humphries said: “We all know this recession is deep, we are feeling the depths of it right now, but in my view it is going to be short and I am pleased to say that I think we are recovering. The NIESR are reporting two month of positive GDP growth and if it's true and we get a third then actually we are technically and officially out of recession.
 
“But if you look at other factors like training investment by large companies, mortgage rates and house prices - there are green shoots and it’s about time we started planning optimistically for recovery rather than just fearing it might never come.
 
“If I’m right about the recovery then maybe the UK is finally learning the lesson of skills and that learning matters and learning pays.”
 
And he praised employers for not making the same mistakes, of cutting training budgets and distancing themselves from unions, as many did during the recession in the early 90s.
 
“In my view employment is going to recover more quickly than in the last recession, and in my opinion skill shortages will actually be less severe as a result of all of this happening. Perhaps we are actually getting the message that the skills of our people are our guarantee of prosperity and for the first time I think we are seeing employers investing in skills in the challenging times - not just in the good times.”
 
But the predictions were met by some shaking heads among the delegates present, many of who are not seeing green-shoots of recovery reflected in their training budgets, yet.
 
And the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), a social and economic think tank, is urging caution.

Tony Dolphin, senior economist at the Institute, says that although there are positive signs of recovery it is premature to say the recession has ended because unemployment is likely to continue increasing throughout the rest of the year and in previous recessions output has rebounded temporarily before contracting again.
 
But Humphries continued by saying, regardless of the economic climate, skills made a significant difference to the earnings and opportunities of individuals - those with low skills having only around half the earning potential of those with high skills at the peak of their careers.
 
“For those seeking employment, if you look at the impact qualifications make, someone’s employment status who has no qualifications or very low skills - their employment rate is extraordinarily and worryingly low,” he said
 
The UKCES was set up last year in direct response to Lord Leitch's 2006 review of skills. Its role is to advise the government on the skills agenda and how improved skills systems can help the UK become a world-class leader in productivity, employment and diversity.

Earlier this year UKCES published its annual report, entitled Ambition 2020, it set out a strategy for the UK to achieve world class employment and skills levels by 2020.

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